My Approach
I will never predict trades, for the Packers or otherwise. I also try to slot players based on value and fit, not predicting where they will actually go.
Trading Down
It seems that I want the Packers to trade down every year, and this year is no different. I just don’t see much of a separation between 25-45, and I would prefer the extra pick. That being said, I DO see the value of the 5th year option for the first rounders. Other teams might be willing to trade up to get a high salary type guy on that cheap rookie salary. Or maybe the Packers keep it to use the option like they probably will on HaHa this year.
So, Who to Draft?
This is really hard to say. I’m not on the T.J. Watt hype train, but I would potentially be happy with an edge defender. Here are some options:
RB Christian McCaffrey – He’s been my draft crush for a while now. I see his skill set as a perfect match for the team. He is a matchup nightware. He is smoother and catches better than most receivers. Yet you can line him up in the backfield and he has vision and speed. He also is a game changer on special teams. He keeps climbing the board though, and it’s now very unlikely he’ll be there.
LB Reuben Foster – With his personality and off the field problems, he is sliding. He now has a legit chance to fall from about #3 to #29. That being said, I just don’t see how TT would pick him. But, he is legit talent. The Packers are always picking at the end of the round and the never see guys of this caliber. It would personally be hard for me to pass up.
CB Kevin King – He is going up boards, and potentially at the end of the 1st. He has size(6’3″ 200lbs) and speed (4.43), plus he shined in vertical jump and both 20 and 60 shuttle. But the real wild card here is the 3 cone drill. TT seems to love players that score high on this, and he was #1 in the entire class (regardless of position).
OLB Takkarist McKinley – Seems a little short for TT’s preferences, but I’d like to see an edge rusher. Plus, it’s another California lineman/rusher. TT seems to like those in the 1st. (Matthews, Perry, Clark)
CB Gareon Conley – Was expected to be a top 15 pick, and just had a rape allegation. I wonder if he could slide like Laremy Tunsil did, but this came out 2 days earlier. Sounds like some think he won’t get drafted on day 1 at all.
WR Corey Davis – It’s not often you can get a franchise receiver this low. It seems like teams are always taking them very high, but Davis might fall due to an injury. I’m not the worlds biggest fan of taking a receiver with your first pick, but this pick is almost 2nd round. He is potentially better than Jordy Nelson, who was taken 7 picks further down.
OG Forrest Lamp – I just can’t imagine TT taking a guard in the 1st, and I probably wouldn’t either. That said, a lot of the Packers 1st round picks haven’t been home runs, and it might be worth thinking about a “safe” pick. I’m not sold on old man Jahri Evans either.
RB Joe Mixon – Am I crazy? Yeah, probably. Here’s the thing: It might be worth it. Yes, what he did was wrong. Dead wrong. But the bigger question is what he’s going to do in the future. If the Packers are pretty sure about him going forward, this might make a ton of sense. From what I have seen, he looks truly sorry about it. He’s had the opportunity to learn from this and might be less of a risk than most of the people in the draft! I think running backs make the best rookies, and this guy is super talented and ready to make an immediate impact. He would fit right in with the system and has speed, vision, and can catch. On top of all of that, you can exercise the 5th year option on him while he’s in the RB prime age and keep him for friendly salary. After that contract is up, you let him go for a comp pick. The Packers have used a 1st on MUCH worse situations than this scenario.
My Position Preference
This draft is so deep on CB, EDGE, RB, and TE. Personally, my preference is to take CB and EDGE with the first 2 picks. I think the RBs and TEs worth the 1st will be gone, and there are more later. With the talent at those 4 positions, I’d like to see them get at least 1 of each, starting at corner and edge rusher.
Enjoy the draft!